Nicky Jolene
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 86
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 26/12/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |