Spotty Showers
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/06/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 14/07/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |