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5

Tell Me Some Lies

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 90

Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Monmouth Park 06/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 83 · 1m Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par6/09C5OR 83C8 @ Meadowlands 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m 122 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 81 parC7 @ Gulfstream 15/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 85 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 85 par15/11C7OR 85C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 12/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m Gd 121 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 86 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS17/01C7C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m3f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS21/03C7C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 96 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 94 par6/07C7OR 94projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Colonial Downs?4th3rd+1
2026-04-19Tampa Bay Downs?6th5th+1
2026-03-21Tampa Bay Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-02-21Tampa Bay Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-01-17Tampa Bay Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-12-12Tampa Bay Downs?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0912/1221/036/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength47%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20255th10/147%20%-0.27
20/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
15/11/20254th14/126%25%-0.01
12/12/20252nd5/287%89%+0.02
17/01/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
21/02/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
21/03/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
19/04/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
06/07/20264th10/147%57%+0.10