10
Promissio
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 106
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-21 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-09 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/02/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |