Reckless
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 91
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |