Underappreciated
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 7 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 29/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |