10
Biker Baley
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 80
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |