13
Fletcher
6yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-08-27 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/06/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 27/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |