9
Karate Island
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 91
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/11 | 99% | 80% | -0.19 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 89% | -0.06 |
| 20/12/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |