8
Knockanara
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 14/03/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |