12
Overspent
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |