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14

Roommate Martin

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 69

Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Laurel Park 14/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark14/09/2024 · OR 56 par14/09C8OR 56C5 @ Charles Town 22/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 118 · beat its mark22/11/2024 · OR 62 parC5 @ Charles Town 03/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 6f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 72 par3/05C5OR 72C5 @ Charles Town 28/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 74 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 57 · 5f 122 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 57 par30/08C8OR 57C7 @ Laurel Park 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 57 parC5 @ Laurel Park 07/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 62 par7/11C5OR 62C5 @ Colonial Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f110y Sft 122 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 75 parC9 @ Colonial Downs 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 77 par23/07C9OR 77projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Colonial Downs?5th9th−4
2026-06-28Colonial Downs?7th7th0
2025-11-07Laurel Park?9th9th0
2025-10-12Laurel Park?1st3rd−2
2025-08-30Colonial Downs?1st4th−3
2025-06-28Charles Town?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0928/067/1123/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20244th33/10%63%+0.63
22/11/20242nd11/486%83%-0.02
03/05/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
28/06/20256th8/158%17%-0.41
30/08/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
12/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
07/11/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
28/06/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
23/07/20265th25/10%20%+0.20