7
State Conceal
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 86
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |