4
Boss Lily
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 79
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |