Chingu
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 84
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |