Cptbobsbtwentynine
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/7
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2024 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 23/03/2024 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 27/04/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/06/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |