2
Efficacy
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 21/01/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.46 |