11
Flamenco Star
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 12/06/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 29/06/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/5 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |