10
Lomax
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 05/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |