12
No Merlot
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 91% | -0.04 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 1/2 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |