5
Oxford Union
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |