8
Smooth An Easy
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 05/04/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |