Timeframe
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 88
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 0th | +7 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |