Empress Matilda
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 103
Del Mar · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2024-10-31 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/03/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |