Eva Lea
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 93
Del Mar · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |