4

Tam's Little Angel

7yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 101

Del Mar · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Del Mar 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 97 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 97 par23/08C8OR 97C8 @ Santa Anita 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 97 · 6f Fm 122 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Santa Anita 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 100 · 6f Fm 122 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 100 par10/01C8OR 100C8 @ Santa Anita 30/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 102 parC7 @ Santa Anita 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 102 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 102 par14/02C7OR 102C8 @ Santa Anita 13/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 99 · 6f110y Fm 122 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 99 parC8 @ Santa Anita 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 97 · 6f 124 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 97 par17/04C8OR 97C6 @ Santa Anita 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 94 parC6 @ Santa Anita 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 94 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 94 par12/06C6OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12Santa Anita?2nd0th+2
2026-05-23Santa Anita?5th3rd+2
2026-04-17Santa Anita?3rd3rd0
2026-03-13Santa Anita?6th6th0
2026-02-14Santa Anita?7th6th+1
2026-01-30Santa Anita?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0830/0117/0412/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
18/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
10/01/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
30/01/20266th11/271%38%-0.34
14/02/20267th16/116%14%-0.02
13/03/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
17/04/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
23/05/20265th33/10%56%+0.56
12/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51