4
Misty Dancer
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77
Del Mar · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/07/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |