5
Mustang Knicky
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 83
Del Mar · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |