IvyArcIvyArc
5

Concealed Carry

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 85

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 28/05/2023 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/05/2023 · OR 97 par28/05C6OR 97C7 @ Woodbine 15/07/2023 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2023 · OR 97 parC7 @ Woodbine 19/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2023 · OR 94 par19/08C7OR 94C6 @ Woodbine 08/10/2023 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2023 · OR 96 parC6 @ Woodbine 19/11/2023 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 99 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/11/2023 · OR 99 par19/11C6OR 99C6 @ Monmouth Park 03/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2024 · OR 94 parC5 @ Aqueduct 01/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/03/2025 · OR 90 par1/03C5OR 90C6 @ Laurel Park 04/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2025 · OR 82 parC8 @ Delaware Park 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 6f 122 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 82 par30/07C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2025-04-04Laurel Park?7th5th+2
2025-03-01Aqueduct?8th4th+3
2024-08-03Monmouth Park?5th3rd+2
2023-11-19Woodbine?11th9th+2
2023-10-08Woodbine?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/058/101/0330/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength97%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20239th6/168%11%-0.57
15/07/20232nd2/189%80%-0.09
19/08/20231st4/179%100%+0.21
08/10/20234th10/147%25%-0.22
19/11/202311th9/153%0%-0.53
03/08/20245th14/126%33%+0.07
01/03/20258th33/10%0%0.00
04/04/20257th20/10%0%0.00
30/07/20263rd1/195%82%-0.13