Let's Have A Party
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |