Final Drama
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |