3
H C Holiday
8yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 70
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/07/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 30/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |