1
Caravaggio's Song
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |