6
Expecting A Winner
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 98
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |