Fairfield Bay
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |