4
Tall Cotton
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |