4
Italy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 88% | -0.10 |