8
Minister Confessor
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turf Paradise | BHA64 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 21/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |