1
Lilliput
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 62
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |