3
Sister Carlie
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/01/2026 | 12th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |