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3

Melcastille

4yo Filly · 10-13

Dieppe · Prix Mon Controle Technique Rouxmesnil Handicap Hurdle · 2m 198y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Clairefontaine 02/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Gd 1282/07C5C0 @ Pau 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f87y Ver 15010/12C?C8 @ Pau 06/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 2m88y Hvy 1456/02C8C0 @ La Teste De Buch 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m1f196y GS 14322/04C?3 @ La Teste De Buch 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 2m198y GS 15415/053C0 @ La Teste De Buch 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m198y Gd 15011/07C?projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11La Teste De Buch?1st1st0
2026-05-27Toulouse?0
2026-05-15La Teste De Buch36th6th0
2026-04-22La Teste De Buch?2nd2nd0
2026-02-24Angers?0
2026-02-06Pau?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0710/126/0222/0415/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength74%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20257th66/10%0%0.00
10/12/20256th13/266%55%-0.11
06/02/20267th33/10%0%0.00
22/04/20262nd40/10%91%+0.91
15/05/20266th13/266%0%-0.66
11/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63