3
Lafayette
5yo Filly · 10-10
Dieppe · Prix Deep Jumping Hurdle · 2m 198y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength22%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +4.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-13 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2024-09-11 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-06-05 | Argentan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 05/04/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 22/05/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 05/06/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/08/2024 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 06/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 11/09/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 13/10/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/12/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |