11
Merci Gaby
4yo Filly · 10-5
Dieppe · Prix Deep Jumping Hurdle · 2m 198y
#2
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength84%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Lignieres | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nantes | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-10-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 1st | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 58% | +0.03 |