3
First Polar
6yo Gelding · 11-2
Dieppe · Prix Mika Motor Location (prix D'angers - Chmpt Paris Turf Des Ajj) Hurdle · 2m 2f 195y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-12 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Auteuil | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-01-05 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-12-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-12-06 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2023 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/12/2023 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 27/12/2023 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 03/01/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/12/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 05/01/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/05/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 27/05/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |