4

Good Mojo

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89

Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 98 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 98 par9/08C6OR 98C6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 95 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Keeneland 22/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 97 par22/10C6OR 97C6 @ Churchill Downs 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 92 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 95 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 95 par27/11C7OR 95C7 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 91 · 7f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 84 par25/05C8OR 84C8 @ Churchill Downs 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 82 par19/07C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Ellis Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-14Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-05-25Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2026-04-29Churchill Downs?9th8th+1
2025-11-27Churchill Downs?4th3rd+1
2025-11-07Churchill Downs?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/087/1125/0519/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength54%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20252nd7/491%86%-0.05
13/09/20254th8/158%73%+0.15
22/10/20254th13/266%73%+0.07
07/11/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
27/11/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
29/04/20269th8/158%11%-0.47
25/05/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
14/06/20263rd13/891%60%-0.31
19/07/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07