Greers Ferry
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 90
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-01-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2024 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 10/09/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 01/10/2024 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 06/12/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 23/01/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |