7
Impavido
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 13% | -0.70 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |