Stone County

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 80

Ellis Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-18	Ellis Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-13	Churchill Downs	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-05-09	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-10	Oaklawn Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-03-15	Oaklawn Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-08-09	Saratoga	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 8

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength50%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/08/2025	5th	20/1	0%	43%	+0.43
15/03/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
10/04/2026	7th	25/1	0%	14%	+0.14
09/05/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	75%	-0.09
13/06/2026	5th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
18/07/2026	1st	7/1	63%	100%	+0.37