Bon Temps

4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 75

Ellis Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

55%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-07	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-04	Churchill Downs	?	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2026-04-03	Oaklawn Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-03-08	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-02-15	Oaklawn Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2025-12-26	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength100%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/09/2025	5th	9/1	53%	43%	-0.10
23/10/2025	8th	7/2	82%	22%	-0.59
16/11/2025	9th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
26/12/2025	3rd	33/1	0%	67%	+0.67
15/02/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46
08/03/2026	3rd	7/4	91%	50%	-0.41
03/04/2026	4th	2/1	89%	57%	-0.32
04/06/2026	7th	12/1	37%	40%	+0.03
07/07/2026	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05