1
Carcar Express
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 67
Ellis Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2024-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2024-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2024 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/10/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |